Republican outside spenders have also played a significantly smaller — yet helpful role — in combating anti-Ernst spending. A FiveThirtyEight study of swing states found that Iowa moved 13 points to the right of the country as a whole in the 2016 election, but projections have Iowa moving slightly to the left in 2020.
Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) (Caroline Brehman/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images). Thirty-five of the 100 seats will be up for election, including two special elections.
She went on to defeat Braley by nine points. But while the poll indicates a growing lead for the president in Iowa, it shows the Senate race between Republican Sen. Joni Ernst and Democrat Theresa Greenfield getting tighter. Ernst will be receiving some more help from another outside group. Its affiliated “dark money” group Majority Forward and Fred Eychaner — a Chicago media publisher and major Democratic donor — have each given $8 million to Senate Majority PAC this cycle.
Campaigns and outside groups have pummeled Iowa’s airwaves seeking to sway voters. As of the latest filing period on June 30, Ernst outperformed Greenfield in fundraising, receiving $14.4 million compared to Greenfield’s $11.6 million. Kim Reynolds by 3 points against well-funded businessman Fred Hubbell. But Democrats nominated a farm girl of their own — and outside groups took notice. Polls. Elections. Mainstream Democratic campaign groups have spent millions across the country to help Democrats retake the Senate. And although Ernst has slightly outdone Greenfield in fundraising, outside Democratic groups — both establishment and issue-based — have spent far more than pro-Ernst groups. At one time an employer for her father’s crop-dusting business, Theresa Greenfield — now a real estate developer — has staked her campaign on hallmark New Deal era policies popular with voters. Since the 1913 Constitutional amendment establishing the direct election of senators, 2016 was the first time each state voted for the same party in both the presidential and Senate elections. One Country Fund was founded by the leftover campaign cash of former Sens. Poll: Democrat Greenfield has slight lead over Ernst in Iowa Senate race. “Make ‘em squeal” served as a rallying cry for Ernst throughout the rest of the race. Party Odds; Theresa Greenfield (D) +110: Joni Ernst (R)-150: An early August poll show Democratic challenger and political neophyte Theresa Greenfield narrowly leading incumbent Ernst in a bid to grab this Senate seat.
At OpenSecrets.org we offer in-depth, money-in-politics stories in the public interest. The fate of the race, however, may hinge on the success or failure of former Vice President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. Reelection seemed probable in Iowa’s Senate race. So far, One Country Fund has spent $663,000 against Ernst, half a million of which was donated by Heitkamp’s former Senate campaign committee. In 2018, Democrats won three of four House seats, collectively earning 51 percent of votes throughout the state’s districts. In 2014, Ernst faced off against former Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa) in a year marred by high unfavorability for Democrats across the country. In the past election cycles, vote-splitting has drastically dropped, a Brookings Institute analysis of the 2020 Senate elections showed. Iowa Senate Race Odds. For direct links to Senate or presidential polling detail in each state, see these maps. One attack ad ridiculed Braley for missing committee hearings on veterans affairs, and Ernst released an ad insinuating she would castrate members of Congress just as she had done to hogs growing up on her family’s farm.